Uncertainty Distribution Models for Key Input Parameters for Design and Analysis of Flexible Pavement in Nigeria

Shuaibu A. A., Kaura J. M., Murana A. A., Olowosulu A. T.

Abstract


The road transportation sector is cardinal to accessing the growth and socio-economic development of any country. This is because it contributes directly and immensely to support other sectors of the economy to function properly. Flexible pavement is a multi-layer system of which its design is mostly based on empiricism, assuming a deterministic process with final output as pavement thickness. Each layer thickness is designed and placed in a manner that the wheel loading does not become excessive for the subgrade to bear. Various studies have revealed uncertainties due to variations of thickness and layer modulus which could result in premature failure of the pavement. This variability could be as a result of poor design practice, inadequate quality control, complex traffic loading, complex material properties, lack of fit of design model as well as subgrade characteristic. To address these variabilities many highway agencies were forced into probabilistic design approach to accommodate uncertainties. Of crucial importance to this type of design is the characterization of material properties and establishment of appropriate probability distribution models. This study focused on the development of probability distribution models of key input pavement parameter to the design and analysis of flexible pavement. Data on the geometry and material properties were collected from Pavement Evaluation Unit (PEU), Kaduna and Federal Ministry of Power Works and Housing (FMPWH), Abuja. The probability distribution models of the variation of layer thicknesses, asphalt stiffness, base stiffness and subgrade stiffness were developed using Easy fit 5.5 statistical packages. The results of the studies revealed that the best distribution model for the layer thicknesses as well as stiffness considered in the study is the normal distribution.


Full Text:

PDF

References


Anderson, T. W, (2011.), Anderson–Darling Tests of Goodness-of-Fit, InternationalEncyclopedia of Statistical Science, Springer Berlin Heidelberg, pp 52-54. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-64204898-2_118.

Anderson, T. W, (1995), Goodness-of-Fit Test for Probability Distribution and Spectral Distribution,Technical Report, 310, Prepare the Auspices of National Science Research Grant, Department of Statistic, Stanford University, California, U.S.A.

Ayyub, M. B and Klir, G. J, (2006), Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis in Engineering and the Sciences, Chapman & Hall/CRC Taylor & Francis Group.

Babashamsi, P, Yusoff, N. I, Ceylan, H, Md Nor, N G and Jenatabadi, H S, (2016), Evaluation o Pavement Life Cycle Cost Analysis: Review and Analysis, International Journal of Pavement Research and Technology , pp. 241–254

Castillo, D and Caro, S, (2014) Probabilistic Modeling of Air Void Variability of Asphalt Mixtures In Flexible Pavements, Construction and Building Materials 61, pp 138 146.

Chou, Y. T, (1990), Reliability design procedures for flexible pavements, Journal of transportation Engineering, American Society of Civil Engineers, ASCE, 116(5), pp. 602-614.

Claros G., Carmicheal, R. F and Harvey, J., (1986), Development of Pavement Evaluation Unit and Rehabilitation Procedure for Overlay Methods; vol 2, overlay Design Manual, Texas Research and Development Foundation for Nigeria Federal Ministry of Works and Housing, Lagos, Nigeria.

Dalla Valle, P, (2005), Reliability in Pavement Design, Thesis submitted to the University of Nottingham for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, Nottingham, U. K.

Dalla Valle, P., and Thom N, (2016), Reliability in Pavement Design, 6th Eurasphalt and Eurobitume Congress, Prague, Czech Republic, (DOI): dx.doi.org/10.14311/EE.2016.033.

FMPWH, (2016), Revised Inventory of Federal Highways, Federal Ministry of Power, Works and Housing, Highway Planning and Development Department, Mabushi, Abuja, Nigeria.

Harvey, M. O, (2012), Optimizing Road Maintenance, Discussion Paper No. 2012-12 Prepared for the Roundtable on Sustainable Road Funding, International Transport Forum. www.internationaltransportforum.org.

Kaura, J.M, (2014), Reliability-Based Analysis and Calibration of Eurocode 5 Design Criteria for a Solid Timber Portal Frame. A PhD Thesis Submitted to Department of Civil Engineering, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Kaduna, Nigeria.

Li., N, (1997), Development of a Probabilistic Based, Integrated Pavement Management System, a Thesis Presented to the University of Waterloo in Fulfilment of the thesis requirement for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Civil Engineering, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada.

Lytton R. L and Zollinger, G. A, (1993), Modeling Reliability in Pavements, 72nd Annual Meeting of theTransportation Research Board, Washington, D.C.

Maji, A, Singh, D and Chawla, H, (2016), Developing probabilistic approach for asphaltic overlay design by considering variability of input parameters, Innov. Infrastruct. Solution. Springer International Publishing Switzerland.

Martinez, W, L and Martinez, A. R, (2002), Computational Statistics Handbook with MATLAB, Chapman & Hall/CRC, Boca Raton London New York Washington, D.C.

Mehrannia, H and Pakgohar, A, (2014), Using Easy Fit Software for Goodness-of-Fit Test and Data Generation, International Journal of Mathematical Archive-5(1), pp.118-124. ISSN 2229 – 5046.

Noureldin, S. A., Sharaf, E., Arafah, A., and Al-Sugair, F., (1994), Estimation of Standard Deviation of Predicted Performance of Flexible Pavements using AASHTO Model, Transportation Research Record 1449, Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, Washington, D.C., pp. 46-56.

Oberguggenberger, M and Fellin, W, (2004), The fuzziness and sensitivity of failure probabilities, in W. Fellin, H. Lessmann, , M. Oberguggenberger, and R. Vieider, (ed) Analyzing Uncertainty in Civil Engineering, Springer Berlin Heidelberg New York, ISBN 3-54 22246-4.

Oberguggengerger, (2004), The Mathematics of Uncertainty: Models, Methods and Interpretations, in W. Fellin, H. Lessmann, , M. Oberguggenberger, and R. Vieider, (ed) Analyzing Uncertainty in Civil Engineering, Springer Berlin Heidelberg New York, ISBN 3-540-22246-4.

Prozzi J. A, Gossain V, and Manuel, L, (2005), Reliability of Pavement Structures Using Mechanistic Empirical Models, Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting,Washington, D.C.

Retherford, J. Q and McDonald, M, (2010), Reliability Methods Applicable to Mechanistic Empirical Pavement Design Method, Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 2154, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C.,pp. 130–137. DOI: 10.3141/2154-13.

Timm, D. H., Newcomb, D. E. and Galambos, T. V., (2000), Incorporation of Reliability into Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Final Report, MN.RC-1999-35, Minnesota Department of Transportation, U.S.A.

Timm, D.H., Newcomb, D.E., Birgisson, B., and Galambos, T.V., (1999), Incorporation of Reliability into the Minnesota Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Method, Final Report Prepared to Minnesota Department of Transportation, Minnesota Univ., Department of Civil Engineering, Minneapolis.


Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.